Ensemble machine learning models trained on 1.5M play-by-play rows. Calibrated probabilities that find the edge sportsbooks miss.
Most prediction tools give you a pick and say "trust me." Benchie AI gives you calibrated probabilities, transparent confidence levels, and the math behind every number.
When we say 65%, we mean it. Isotonic regression calibration ensures our probabilities match real-world outcomes.
Predictions update at 24 checkpoints throughout every game. As context changes, our models adapt instantly.
Every pick is logged before tip-off. Wins and losses both. No cherry-picking, no retroactive claims.
A four-stage pipeline transforms raw NBA data into actionable, calibrated probability estimates.
1.5M rows of NBA play-by-play data spanning multiple seasons. Every possession, every substitution, every context signal.
200+ engineered features capture player role, usage patterns, blowout adjustments, matchup dynamics, and in-game momentum.
Five model types compete and combine via stacking. Each trained across 24 game checkpoints and 3 player tiers (star, starter, role) for granular accuracy.
Raw predictions are converted to probabilities using empirical residual distributions and isotonic regression. The result: a probability you can trust.
Backtested on 50,000 out-of-sample snapshots with real sportsbook prop lines. Early-game predictions (Q1-Q2) are the true test of model strength.
Backtest results are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. Break-even at standard -110 odds is 52.38%.
Four prop markets, each with its own ensemble of models trained on target-specific data.
A conversational AI backed by 1.5M play-by-play rows. Ask about matchups, trends, recent performance, or upload a screenshot of your parlay for instant evaluation. Every answer is grounded in real data.
Ask about player matchups, shooting trends, pace impact, or historical performance in plain English.
Upload a screenshot of any bet slip. Benchie reads it, evaluates each leg, and grades your parlay.
Every response cites real play-by-play data, game logs, and model predictions. No vibes, just evidence.
Points, rebounds, and assists are all highly correlated with minutes played. A player projected for 25 minutes will produce very differently than one expected to play 38. We model the why behind playing time, not just the stat.
LeBron scoring 45 points in a 45-minute game doesn't tell you much about his next game where he's projected to play just 25 minutes. Stat lines scale with opportunity, and opportunity is minutes. We treat playing time as the first prediction, not an afterthought.
Stars, starters, rotation, and deep bench have different minutes floors and ceilings.
Coming back from injury? Minutes restrictions, ramp-up protocols, and back-to-back limits all factor in.
Stars get pulled early in blowouts, while bench players see extended run. Our model adjusts for score differential in real-time.
When a teammate is out, remaining players absorb minutes. We track the redistribution effect on usage and opportunity.
Starters play heavier minutes in the postseason. Close playoff games push stars to 42+ minutes — our models know this.
Everything you need to analyze NBA player props — from pre-game research to live in-game tracking, all backed by the same ML pipeline.
Upload a screenshot of your parlay slip or build one manually. Get per-leg probabilities, correlated parlay odds, EV calculation, and a risk grade. Identifies your weakest leg and suggests improvements.
BuiltTrack any player during a live game. P(Over) updates at 24 checkpoints as the game unfolds. Watch probability shift in real-time as context changes — minutes, pace, score differential.
BuiltAutomated daily picks published before tip-off. Every win and loss tracked transparently. No cherry-picking — running ROI, hit rates by tier, and season-long performance for full accountability.
BuiltBenchie AI is being built in public. Follow the journey from model training to launch.
Follow @benchieai for daily NBA player prop analysis, model updates, and launch news.
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